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By the primary six video games of the season, it seems like we’ve realized just a few main issues:
The run sport is en vogue once more.
Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are on totally different planets.
And, Father Time would possibly lastly be getting his get again on Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Inexperienced Bay Packers had been each regarded as the first contenders within the NFC. Caesars had the Bucs and Packers on the fourth and eighth-best odds within the preseason, in line with Motion Community.
Six video games later, they’re each .500 and the sky is falling. TikTok witches are predicting Brady’s downfall and Rodgers won’t have sufficient ayahuasca to get by the season in a single piece. Brady appears extra gaunt than gallant, and Rodgers is rocking a haircut that may solely be described as ‘eccentric’:
Everybody stunned that Aaron Rodgers was closely cheered. When you’ve got a haircut like this, clearly the blokes throughout the pond are gonna love him pic.twitter.com/519tPTGHXO
— Will Tondo (@wtondo) October 9, 2022
From ‘Con Air’ to Condor in a 3rd of the season, a disgrace actually.
Nevertheless, it’s necessary we take a step again from the micro and take a look at the macro in terms of these two groups. What’s gone improper for them this season, and is there any approach to repair it?
Let Brady Prepare dinner?
Earlier than the season, the overall consensus for the Buccaneers was “in the event that they keep wholesome, the Bucs would be the group to beat” within the NFC.
For probably the most half, that’s been right. The Bucs offense remains to be actually good when wholesome—they’re simply by no means wholesome. The turnover on the offensive line by departures and accidents has left the Buccaneers with three new starters, all on the inside. Whereas Shaq Mason has continued his excessive degree of play, heart Robert Hainsey and rookie left guard Luke Goedeke have been the clear weak hyperlinks.
These points had been on clear show of their 20-18 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Their EPA/rush was -0.148, good for nineteenth in all the league. They merely couldn’t get a lot push within the run sport, and the Steelers second degree defenders had been capable of fill lanes with ease.
In response to Soccer Outsiders, the Bucs run behind their guards at 57 % of the time, tied for seventh highest frequency in all the league. Their Adjusted Line Yards after they do run it there? 3.52 yards per try, thirty first in all the league. A important a part of the Bucs offense is the flexibility to run inside zone, duo and break up zone, which requires the working again to run on the heart as a substitute of following an outdoor zone path.
Which brings us to the following challenge the Bucs face: they’re not good at working the ball, but they insist on doing it loads. The gameplan for the Buccaneers was easy to see coming into the season. As a result of Tom Brady is now 45 years previous, they might run the ball extra usually on early downs to ease the load on Brady as he ages. From 2020-2021, the Buccaneers had been third within the NFL in early down passing frequency, which means they’re throwing the ball extra usually on first and second down. It helped the Bucs turn into among the finest offenses within the league, an offense that was different and dynamic.
This yr, it hasn’t been the identical case.
The Bucs can’t get out of their very own manner on early downs
| Yr | Early Down Passing Frequency(NFL rank) | EPA/Cross on Early Downs (NFL rank) | EPA/Rush on Early Downs (NFL rank) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yr | Early Down Passing Frequency(NFL rank) | EPA/Cross on Early Downs (NFL rank) | EPA/Rush on Early Downs (NFL rank) |
| 2020 | 58% (sixth) | 0.185 (eleventh) | -0.081 (sixteenth) |
| 2021 | 61.3% (third) | 0.189 (fifth) | -0.040 (eleventh) |
| 2022 | 53.9% (14th) | 0.174 (tenth) | -0.178 (twenty eighth) |
The Buccaneers proceed to be one of many ten greatest groups throwing the ball on early downs, however their early down EPA/rush has plummeted to twenty eighth, whereas the utilization on early downs has gone up. That’s not conducive to success on that aspect of the ball.
Panic Meter: 4/10
Regardless of these issues offensively, I’m unsure if I’m tremendous apprehensive in regards to the Bucs simply but. The protection gained’t hand over seven out of 15 third downs, all on third and lengthy, constantly. That’s an actual excessive variance factor that doesn’t translate week in and week out. Ultimately the Bucs shall be absolutely wholesome and the younger guys alongside the offensive line will be taught.
Ultimately…proper?
The Packers have an identification disaster on either side of the ball
So … uhh … the Packers stink now?
Inexperienced Bay misplaced to the New York Jets 26-10 in uninspiring vogue on Sunday. Inexperienced Bay solely managed 4 yards per play and a -0.275 EPA/play, which might’ve been the worst within the NFL if the Panthers didn’t exist.
The protection didn’t fare significantly better, giving up a 0.211 EPA/rush to the Jets regardless of QB Zach Wilson not taking part in very effectively (99 passing yards).
Let’s begin with the Packers offense. By six video games, to name it underwhelming could be an understatement. The Packers are twenty third in EPA/play and twenty fourth in factors per sport. It feels just like the Packers offense is simply, effectively, arduous.
It feels tough for them to generate explosive performs that aren’t coming from RPOs or designed appears out of their 2 again personnel. In a manner, they type of remind me of the 2021 Miami Dolphins, by way of with the ability to generate offense utilizing RPOs however struggling within the dropback elements. By six video games this season the Packers solely have 13 completions of over 15 air yards in line with Sports activities Data Options, and on these targets, solely 51 % of these are catchable. Shedding Davante Adams was at all times going to harm this group, however the failure in with the ability to discover that simple button for the offense has been a part of what’s plagued them this season.
A part of this simple button not being round anymore is from not having a receiver who can separate downfield or constantly win. Randall Cobb leads the Packers in Yards per Route Run, and he was carted off the sphere Sunday with an ankle harm.
Allen Lazard is the following man up in Yards per Route Run, and he leads the group in common depth of goal at 10.8 yards. The issue with that is in line with Subsequent Gen Stats, Lazard solely averages 2.3 yards of separation from his defender, among the many lowest within the league. That leads to a 0.23 EPA/goal on routes 15 air yards or extra downfield, which leads the Packers amongst receivers with ten or extra targets, but it surely’s nineteenth within the NFL in the identical metric.
Regardless of this, Rodgers additionally has to shoulder some blame right here. He’s tried 39 passes of over 15 air yards this season, and is simply producing a 1.93 EPA, which is worse than Jimmy Garoppolo and Baker Mayfield. Each on occasion he’ll join (he had two in opposition to the Jets Sunday), it’s been a wrestle simply to maneuver the chains. They solely have a -0.25 EPA/play on third downs this yr, in comparison with 0.16 EPA/play final yr.
Panic Meter: 11/10
That is DEFCON 6 ranges of panic now for the Packers. Your complete gameplan for this group was alleged to be for the protection to hold them by video games, but the protection hasn’t been in a position to do this in any respect. Each sport, somebody is out of place, lacking tackles or one thing completely haywire is occurring.
The protection has manner an excessive amount of expertise to be making these errors; SEVEN of the Packers starters on protection are first spherical draft picks and some huge cash went into that aspect of the ball. They will’t proceed to play this poor and anticipate totally different outcomes. The Packers needs to be apprehensive, as a result of Aaron Rodgers won’t be sufficient to save lots of this group.
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